Realtors Look to Stronger 2008

Existing-home sales are projected to trend up in 2008, with pending home sales showing a slight near-term rise, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors®. However, a recovery for new-home sales is unlikely before 2009.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the worst part of the credit crunch has already worked its way through the data. “The unusual mortgage disruptions that peaked in August were clearly seen in lower home sales that were finalized in September and October, so the market was underperforming,” he said. “Now that mortgage conditions have improved, some postponed activity should turn up in existing-home sales over the next couple of months, and I expect sales at fairly stable to slightly higher levels.”

The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in October, increased 0.6 percent to an index of 87.2 from an upwardly revised reading of 86.7 in September. It was the second consecutive monthly gain, but remained 18.4 percent below the October 2006 index of 106.8. “The broad trend over the coming year will be a gradual rise in existing-home sales, but because sales are exceptionally low in the final months of 2007, total sales for 2008 will be only modestly higher than 2007,” Yun said.

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Apprecation or Slump? Depends on Where You Live

For the first time in nearly thirteen years, home prices in the US experienced a quarterly decline, according to a new report released by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO).

While select markets still maintain robust rates of appreciation, our newest data show price weakening in a very significant portion of the country,” said Lockhart. “Indeed, in the third quarter, more than 20 states experienced price declines and, in some cases, those declines are substantial.”

Many of the cities and states experiencing the sharpest declines this quarter were the same cities and states experiencing the sharpest increases just a couple of years ago, suggesting some price corrections in those markets.

Of course, national averages don't tell the whole story. Washington State was one of the exceptions, with the fifth-highest rate of appreciation (7%) during the quarter. And a particular hot spot is Wenatchee, which for the third consecutive quarter had the highest four-quarter appreciation among the 287 Metropolitan Statistical Areas on OFHEO’s list of “ranked” cities. Annual appreciation in Wenatchee was 15.7 percent.

You can download a PDF of the complete OFHEO report here.